The latest NCVER data on qualification completions show that almost half (48.9%) of nationally recognised VET qualifications which students commenced in 2021 were completed within four years. This was slightly below the 49.5 percent recorded for the 2020 commencing cohort, but higher than the rates for each of the previous four years.
More recent cohorts appear likely to record stronger results. NCVER projects that 50.9 percent of qualifications commenced in 2022 will be completed, with 49.4 percent already completed by the end of 2025. The projected rate for the 2023 cohort is estimated to be higher again at 54.7 percent. Both cohorts have already achieved higher completion rates than the 2021 cohort.
Completion rates differ substantially by qualification level, funding source and field of study. Diploma and higher-level qualifications had the strongest result for the 2021 cohort at 56.7 percent, compared with 41.3 percent for Certificate I qualifications. International fee-for-service students recorded a completion rate of 62.6 percent, compared with 48.9 percent for government-funded students and 44.8 percent for domestic fee-for-service students. Part of this difference reflects the qualifications being studied: international students were more likely to be enrolled at diploma level or above, while government funding supported a disproportionate share of Certificate I and II enrolments. Even after qualification level is considered, however, international fee-for-service students had higher completion rates across almost every level.
There were positive results in areas of significant workforce demand. Commencements and completion rates increased for electrotechnology qualifications, including the Certificate III in Electrotechnology Electrician, as well as qualifications linked to agriculture, horticulture, animal care, health and welfare support. The Construction, Plumbing and Services training package recorded a 3.6 percentage point increase in completions alongside a 16.8 percent rise in commencements. Results for individual high-volume qualifications were more mixed. The completion rate for the Diploma of Early Childhood Education and Care rose to 59.4 percent, while the Certificate III in Early Childhood Education and Care fell to 44.1 percent.
The results for priority learner groups underline the importance of well-targeted support:
- regional and remote learners recorded their highest completion rate since 2016 at 45.1%
- Indigenous learners also reached a high of 37.6% but that still means that Indigenous learners remained more than 11 percentage points behind non-Indigenous learners.
For providers, the findings reinforce the value of early identification of students at risk of disengaging, flexible timetabling, culturally appropriate support and sustained contact when learners’ employment or personal circumstances change.
And, as the NCVER identifies in their annual Student Outcomes Survey qualification completion rates should not be treated as a simple measure of provider quality. Some students enrol intending to acquire particular skills rather than a full qualification, and others leave training after gaining employment. Short courses and stand-alone subject enrolments, which accounted for more than half of total VET student activity in 2021, are not included in these qualification completion figures.
