This question is explored in a recent NCVER publication authored by Ronnie Semo, Emerick Chew, Kate Dowling, Cameron Forrest and Somayeh Parvazian. The study used “data from the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY), in conjunction with data from the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) and MySchool, to consider the contextual factors that affect a student’s academic trajectory.” It “explores the association between students’ academic performance at school and their schooling outcomes, as evidenced by their Australian Tertiary Admissions Rank (ATAR).”
Year 12 completion represents a significant milestone for individuals looking to pursue tertiary education in some form and those who complete Year 12 also tend to have more successful transitions from education to work. This gives them greater choice in terms of employment pathways, increased job security and higher wages. In addition, “prior academic achievement consistently stands out as one of the most significant influences of tertiary education pathways, alongside gender, socioeconomic status (SES), school sector and geographic location.”
What did the study find?
First, “socioeconomic status in isolation did not have a significant effect on the likelihood of a student receiving an ATAR. However, a student’s socioeconomic status, in combination with their NAPLAN scores, was the strongest predictor of ATAR achievement when controlling for other factors.” Thus, “as their NAPLAN scores increase, individuals from a high socioeconomic background are almost one and a half times more likely to receive an ATAR than individuals from a low socioeconomic background with the same increase in their NAPLAN score.”
Second, “female students and those with a non-English speaking background are almost twice as likely to receive an ATAR compared to their male peers and those with an English-speaking background respectively, while Indigenous students are about half as likely as non-Indigenous students to receive an ATAR.”
In fact, “just two factors are associated with achieving a high ATAR: Year 9 NAPLAN performance and gender – students with higher NAPLAN scores are almost twice as likely to achieve an ATAR score of 90 or above; and female students are also almost twice as likely as males to achieve ATAR scores of 90 or above.”
Third, and interestingly, “schools play a relatively small role in influencing tertiary entrance performance compared with the individual characteristics of the student, with only about 13% of the variation in a student’s tertiary entrance score attributable to the school they attend.”
Finally, the project team found that “a position of socioeconomic advantage alone does not translate to exceptional academic success. Instead, strong reading and numeracy skills are key, regardless of a student’s background.”
The report concludes that:
“This study reinforces the important place of academic achievement in every child’s success. Although our analysis indicates that socioeconomic status does not play a determining role in the attainment of an ATAR, the combined effect of socioeconomic status and academic ability does influence student options for transitioning to university. Our study demonstrated the compounding advantage gained from having both a high socioeconomic status in conjunction with a strong academic foundation when accessing higher education, underscoring the importance of supporting those who are academically weak.”
In addition:
“When it comes to preparing students for tertiary education, the role of the school is limited but it is not unimportant. Schools must ensure that support and opportunities are provided for all students, such that the potential of all young Australians is maximised, with a particular focus on male students and those who fall behind. The unique educational and occupational aspirations of each student must also be recognised, with schools encouraged to identify optimal pathways for each individual.”
Finally:
“Providing students with the support they require to perform well at school gives them the best chance of transitioning to higher education, irrespective of their background. A student’s post-school aspirations may change over time, but gaining a solid academic foundation in school is key to arming students with a variety of post-school options.”
