Numbers to get you thinking
Good data makes for good planning, and helps to test the viability of ideas. Given the lock step relationship between VET and industry, knowing where employment markets are heading helps identify the needs and opportunities ahead.
There are many sources of useful data, such as the Regional Australia Institute’s Human Capital Index (see the overview in the VDC News 2 May edition).
Another useful data source is Emsi. You can download six separate reports (one for each state, each of 12 pages) and treat yourself to some high level data about what’s happening around you, and what’s forecast out to 2020. As each report is presents the same data items for each state and capital city, you can compare the differences.
Taking Queensland as an example, the report suggests Brisbane can look forward to healthy jobs growth. The number of jobs in Brisbane in 2020 is expected to hit 829,350 – that’s 8 per cent higher than 2015, an increase of 60,041 jobs overall.
You can also get a more detailed read on particular occupations. Emsi’s Location Quotient (LQ) suggests that out to 2020 the call in Queensland for Sports and Personal Service Workers will be five times the national average. Demand is anticipated to run at almost twice the national average for Panelbeaters, and Vehicle Body Builders, Trimmers and Painters.
Further down the east coast, Victoria might expect 9 per cent more jobs in 2020 than the total number of jobs in 2015. The report lists the top 10 highest growth occupations out to 2020 – they are:
- Sales Assistants (General) –16,279 new jobs forecast (representing an 11% increase)
- Aged and Disabled Carers – 11,495 (35%)
- Registered Nurses – 11,104 (16%)
- Child Carers – 9,259 (28%)
- Waiters – 7,791 (25%)
- Accountants – 7,772 (16%)
- ICT Managers – 5,939 (31%)
- Storepersons – 5,041 (14%)
- Cafe and Restaurant Managers – 4,528 (26%)
- Primary School Teachers – 4,458 (11%).
VET is an active player in most occupations on the list.
Western Australia’s outlook
On the other side of the continent, the labour market looks very different. But if you were expecting mining to be way out front in employment terms, you’ll be disappointed. On the basis of number of jobs, mining is expected to be the fourth largest industry in 2020 with 40,222 jobs – a fall from 45,468 in 2015. WA’s top three industries by job numbers in 2020 are expected to be:
- Cafes, Restaurants and Takeaway Food Services – 70,095 jobs in 2020 (up from 61,797 in 2015)
- School Education – 61,797 jobs in 2020 (up from 55,874 in 2015)
- Architectural, Engineering and Technical Services – 55,515 jobs in 2020 (up from 47,881 in 2015).